Conditional Cash Transfers in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa: Temporal Horizons, Contextual Variations, and Policy Implications

Abstract

 This research looks at the differences in effectiveness between CCT programs over a variety of time horizons and outcome types throughout Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. To arrive at this conclusion, we used a systematic review approach based on the PRISMA framework and completed a quantitative meta-regression analysis to identify the characteristics that predicted how effective CCT programs would be. We completed a meta-analysis by aggregating evidence from 167 studies based on 31 different CCT programs, comparing short-term consumption vs. longer-term human capital outcomes. The results of the analysis demonstrate CCT programs were found to be effective in improving school attendance, utilization of primary healthcare services, and improving overall household consumption during the short-term but are less effective during the long-term, with long-term effectiveness primarily driven by the institutional quality of the program, program design, and various contextual characteristics. In addition, the results of the meta-regression show that the CCT program's conditionality required compliance and program duration were both significant predictors of sustained outcomes, while an increase in the amount of the transfer amount offered to the beneficiary resulted in diminishing returns after the initial short-term impacts. The Temporal Horizon-Institutional Capacity framework provides a means for interpreting these findings, which show that the effectiveness of CCTs on a long-term basis is conditional upon both the availability of institutional capacity and the availability of complementary supportive services. Ultimately, this study supports the need for the design of contextually appropriate integrated policy programs to further ensure that short-term benefits of CCTs are converted into sustainable development outcomes.